Brexit impact on GBP and Brexit timeframe
- Debate over the UK PM Theresa May’s Brexit deal with EU will soon be started in the British Parliament and the lawmakers are expected to vote on it on December 11th.
- Political analysts are suggesting that the agreement won’t make it through to the house of commons
- If the Brexit deal could not make it through, there would have been a number of outcomes including the possibility of a “no-deal” Brexit, a no-confidence vote for PM Theresa May, and PM May could start further negotiation with EU as an attempt to buy time, while she could convince more lawmakers to support the Brexit draft, as EU has already declared that this is the “best possible deal” UK could get.
The Westminster Parliament will soon be starting their debate over the Brexit agreement reached by UK PM Theresa May and the EU commission has already warned the British Parliament that this is the “Best Possible Deal” UK could get.
However, the after-vote scenario would be highly crucial for GBP price and at this moment, it is near-impossible to predict the precise levels to watch over. A “no-Brexit” deal would start a downtrend for both Euro and GBP, that might even last a few months. If the recent Brexit draft get passed through to the house of commons, both GBP and EURO would be benefitted and sudden bull would break both of these currencies crucial level of resistance.
GBP/USD daily price chart
As the Bloomberg News Agency mentioned, there would be five days and eight hours of debate in the British parliament over the Brexit draft signed between UK PM Theresa May and EU commission. The debates will start from December 4thand there would be a break in the debate between December 7thand 9th. Upon the completion of the debate on December 10th, the vote will be held on December 11thin the British Parliament.
During the debate, the GBP and EURO might hang around a tight range, unless the US-China trade war decision in G20 summit causes a caustic momentum. The market is also eyeing the G20 summit, as it is going to play pivotal role for both stocks and currencies, although the stocks appear to be more vulnerable in the wake of a US-China trade war meeting.
Although, a “no-deal” Brexit outcome could not be evaluated precisely, as it might plunge GBP below 1.2500 level and the breakout momentum could persist for months, yet, a successful Brexit deal would certainly benefit both GBP and EUR. As market data suggests, a Brexit deal passed in the British parliament could not only improve the EU-UK business relationship, also the clouds over EURO and GBP momentum would be moving away and as an aftermath, both of those currencies would break their potential level of resistance, for EUR which lies at 1.1600 region and for GBP, the critical level of resistance is residing at 1.3195.
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[Disclaimer: The content of this article is personal opinion and should not be considered as investment advice or suggestion towards any trading activity.]