EUR/USD capped by cautious ECB, EUR falls


The Euro trending points

  • Euro had been suffering tremendous level of trembling, for the last couple of days, yet for now, it remained resilient, as EU-UK agreed to a text draft indicating their “determination” towards future ties and Brexit
  • As GBP/USD upsurge begins, EUR/GBP is plunging and further fall is anticipated as GBP bull-run is highly likely to persist for more couple of days
  • Euro gain dismissed Italian budget, raising the risk of further downfall, yet holding on the key bias of an EU-UK positivity and French-Germany coalition regarding forming a common military regiment, as a reaction to Trump’s criticism.

EU again dismissed Italian Budget, signaling downside risks

While this report has been written, EUR remains resilient and resides just over 1.400. However, an upward momentum is likely in the next couple of days, followed by a surge of EU-UK positive energy and upcoming U.S. holidays.

In long-term outlook, Euro has been suffering from a number of issues galvanizing negative energy throughout the market. European commission, recently rejected the Italian revised budget and Italy did not show any sign of compromise, as EU will now be pressing ahead with their “excessive deficit procedure, that might result a sanction on Italy. As an aftermath, the ECB was forced to a cautious move that might as well be caging EURO in a tight range for a while.

At this moment, the European commission, will be proposing a set of measures, that ought to be implemented in a fixed time frame, and an inability to perform so would allow the EU to impose a sanction, involving a fine of 0.2-0.5% of GDP.

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EUR/USD daily price chart

EUR/USD daily chart

Bottom line

As Euro remained resilient at 1.400 and has been traded in a tight range of 1.1390-1.1410, its critical support level still remains at 1.290 and on the flipside, potential resistance zone would be closer to 1.1600. Although, Euro is likely to be bullish in the next couple of days, ahead of US holidays, Euro volatility is expected in the next week, as this recently signed, EU-UK draft text of agreement, regarding future ties, would be forwarded to the EU summit for approval, due on November 25th, Sunday.

Despite ongoing budget drama over the Italian territory, Euro has been holding on to its key support level at 1.1410, as the EU-UK and Brexit have been experiencing a simmering sign of hope, and Germany-France coalition is strengthened, as both parties are agreed to form a mutual military regiment, as a reaction to Trump’s criticism regarding Europe’s military policy.

Read more on EUR outlook here

[Disclaimer: The content of this article is personal opinion and should not be considered as investment advice or suggestion towards any trading activity.]


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